What Our New Climate Change Section Shows: Navigating a Changing Climate for UK Property

Climate change is no longer a future possibility; it is here and evolving rapidly. In a recent webinar with Ian Quayle's team at IQ Legal Training on 20-02-2025, we explored how climate change regulation has progressed over the years. In the early 2010s, the UK experienced just one major storm per year, but by 2024 that number had risen to 12, signalling a new era of extreme weather. Our new Climate Change section breaks down these complex risks into clear, actionable insights, empowering property professionals to make informed decisions today.

Our section evaluates key physical risks that impact UK properties. Using state-of-the-art data from MapImpact, each risk is explained in plain terms and supported by current statistics from our webinar:

• Shrink-Swell
  We assess the risk of ground movement caused by fluctuations in soil moisture, which can affect building stability. Our data shows that in high-risk regions, repair costs could increase by up to 30% by 2070, with 20% of properties already showing signs of shrink-swell issues.

• Flooding
  We examine the potential for surface (pluvial) and river (fluvial) flooding as well as tidal impacts. One in six UK homes faces significant flood risk, with annual economic losses estimated at £1.6 billion. This information is crucial for understanding the impact on property maintenance and insurance.

• Heat Stress
  Elevated temperatures can accelerate the degradation of building materials and drive up energy demands. Nearly 4.6 million homes in England and Wales are affected by excessive heat, and recent years have seen a notable increase in heat-related fatalities.

• Wildfire
  We evaluate the likelihood of uncontrolled vegetation fires that threaten both life and property. Wildfire frequency has increased by 300% compared to the 20th century, with approximately 360,000 hectares burnt over recent decades, highlighting the need for early mitigation.

• Drought
  Prolonged dry spells reduce water availability and can lead to structural issues. Extended drought conditions could reduce local water supplies by up to 15% by 2050, and 2022 saw a 218% increase in subsidence claims linked to drought conditions.

• Coastal Erosion
  For properties near the coast, erosion can undermine foundations and infrastructure. Although many areas are currently at low risk, regions with higher erosion rates have seen repair spending increase by up to nine times over the past decade.

Each risk is presented using a straightforward traffic light system, making it easy to see at a glance whether further action is needed.

To forecast future impacts, we use Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Think of RCPs as different scenarios that outline potential levels of greenhouse gas emissions and their effects on the climate. We focus on RCP 4.5, a moderate scenario in line with the Met Office’s predictions, which ensures our data reflects realistic, manageable conditions. Our assessments are designed with a typical 35-year mortgage in mind. We concentrate on the near term (the 2030s) and mid term (2050s to 2070s) so that our insights remain relevant throughout the lifespan of a property investment.

Several pivotal events have driven our decision to update our climate change reporting:

• October 2021, TLS Climate Change Resolution
• April 2023, TLS Climate Change Guidance Note
• The Climate Change Act 2008
• 2016, when the UK ratified the Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Today, with 80% of our Martello clients already opting in to climate change searches
• A prediction for January 2025 of a more detailed TLS Climate Change Practice Note or Warning card

These events underscore the growing regulatory and market demand for transparent, forward-looking climate risk information.

Our new Climate Change section is a comprehensive, forward-thinking tool that breaks down complex risks into clear, actionable insights. By reflecting the rapid evolution in climate regulation and using robust, state-of-the-art data, we help property professionals navigate the challenges of a changing climate. With a focus on realistic time periods and moderate scenarios, our assessments are designed to guide long-term property investments. This proactive approach not only meets today’s demands but sets the industry standard for tomorrow."At Martello, I believe that waiting for regulation is no longer an option. Our new Climate Change section empowers property professionals with clear, data-driven insights based on realistic, moderate scenarios over a 35-year horizon. We are not just meeting today's demands; we are setting the standard for the industry and equipping our clients to confidently navigate a changing climate."