For conveyancers, understanding the timeframes used in climate risk assessments is crucial. When assessing climate change impacts on property transactions, the key question is: What future period should I consider? The answer? Let your search provider make it clear.
At Martello, we focus on:
Short-term (~5 years): This aligns with immediate climate impacts and short-term property risk considerations.
Mid-term (~35 years): This timeframe is based on the typical length of a mortgage, making it highly relevant to buyers and lenders.
These periods provide a practical and decision-useful timeframe for property professionals without delving into speculative long-term predictions.
Many data providers also consider scenarios up to 2100, but this comes with a significant caveat: the further into the future you go, the more uncertainty increases. Post-2050, the confidence intervals spread massively. Different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) values (see our guide here) begin to diverge significantly. This means that projections become increasingly ambiguous, making it harder to provide actionable insights.
A 5-year and 35-year outlook ensures practical insights into climate risks without excessive speculation.
Relying on 2100 projections means dealing with highly variable models, where different assumptions about emissions (RCPs) skew the risk analysis significantly.
Choosing a climate search provider who makes these distinctions clear helps you avoid unnecessary alarmism or downplaying risks.
When assessing climate risks in conveyancing, the best approach is to rely on practical, decision-useful timeframes. At Martello, we prioritize clarity by focusing on short-term (~5 years) and mid-term (~35 years) scenarios, ensuring that property professionals and buyers get reliable climate risk assessments. If a provider is giving you 2100 projections, make sure you understand which RCP they are using, because this will significantly alter the risk assessment.
For more insights, check out our guide on Understanding Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).